Lexington
Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
Guan, Hannah, Mouatadid, Soukayna, Orenstein, Paulo, Cohen, Judah, Dong, Haiyu, Ni, Zekun, Berman, Jeremy, Flaspohler, Genevieve, Lu, Alex, Schloer, Jakob, Talib, Joshua, Weyn, Jonathan A., Mackey, Lester
Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.
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Signature vs. Substance: Evaluating the Balance of Adversarial Resistance and Linguistic Quality in Watermarking Large Language Models
Guo, William, Uchendu, Adaku, Smith, Ana
To mitigate the potential harms of Large Language Models (LLMs)generated text, researchers have proposed watermarking, a process of embedding detectable signals within text. With watermarking, we can always accurately detect LLM-generated texts. However, recent findings suggest that these techniques often negatively affect the quality of the generated texts, and adversarial attacks can strip the watermarking signals, causing the texts to possibly evade detection. These findings have created resistance in the wide adoption of watermarking by LLM creators. Finally, to encourage adoption, we evaluate the robustness of several watermarking techniques to adversarial attacks by comparing paraphrasing and back translation (i.e., English $\to$ another language $\to$ English) attacks; and their ability to preserve quality and writing style of the unwatermarked texts by using linguistic metrics to capture quality and writing style of texts. Our results suggest that these watermarking techniques preserve semantics, deviate from the writing style of the unwatermarked texts, and are susceptible to adversarial attacks, especially for the back translation attack.
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Doppler Invariant CNN for Signal Classification
Bagchi, Avi, Hutchenson, Dwight
Radio spectrum monitoring in contested environments motivates the need for reliable automatic signal classification technology. Prior work highlights deep learning as a promising approach, but existing models depend on brute-force Doppler augmentation to achieve real-world generalization, which undermines both training efficiency and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture with complex-valued layers that exploits convolutional shift equivariance in the frequency domain. To establish provable frequency bin shift invariance, we use adaptive polyphase sampling (APS) as pooling layers followed by a global average pooling layer at the end of the network. Using a synthetic dataset of common interference signals, experimental results demonstrate that unlike a vanilla CNN, our model maintains consistent classification accuracy with and without random Doppler shifts despite being trained on no Doppler-shifted examples. Overall, our method establishes an invariance-driven framework for signal classification that offers provable robustness against real-world effects.
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Aircraft Collision Avoidance Systems: Technological Challenges and Solutions on the Path to Regulatory Acceptance
Katz, Sydney M., Moss, Robert J., Asmar, Dylan M., Olson, Wesley A., Kuchar, James K., Kochenderfer, Mykel J.
Aircraft collision avoidance systems is critical to modern aviation. These systems are designed to predict potential collisions between aircraft and recommend appropriate avoidance actions. Creating effective collision avoidance systems requires solutions to a variety of technical challenges related to surveillance, decision making, and validation. These challenges have sparked significant research and development efforts over the past several decades that have resulted in a variety of proposed solutions. This article provides an overview of these challenges and solutions with an emphasis on those that have been put through a rigorous validation process and accepted by regulatory bodies. The challenges posed by the collision avoidance problem are often present in other domains, and aircraft collision avoidance systems can serve as case studies that provide valuable insights for a wide range of safety-critical systems.
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RubbleSim: A Photorealistic Structural Collapse Simulator for Confined Space Mapping
Frost, Constantine, Council, Chad, McGuinness, Margaret, Hanson, Nathaniel
Despite well-reported instances of robots being used in disaster response, there is scant published data on the internal composition of the void spaces within structural collapse incidents. Data collected during these incidents is mired in legal constraints, as ownership is often tied to the responding agencies, with little hope of public release for research. While engineered rubble piles are used for training, these sites are also reluctant to release information about their proprietary training grounds. To overcome this access challenge, we present RubbleSim -- an open-source, reconfigurable simulator for photorealistic void space exploration. The design of the simulation assets is directly informed by visits to numerous training rubble sites at differing levels of complexity. The simulator is implemented in Unity with multi-operating system support. The simulation uses a physics-based approach to build stochastic rubble piles, allowing for rapid iteration between simulation worlds while retaining absolute knowledge of the ground truth. Using RubbleSim, we apply a state-of-the-art structure-from-motion algorithm to illustrate how perception performance degrades under challenging visual conditions inside the emulated void spaces. Pre-built binaries and source code to implement are available online: https://github.com/mit-ll/rubble_pile_simulator.
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Democratizing AI scientists using ToolUniverse
Gao, Shanghua, Zhu, Richard, Sui, Pengwei, Kong, Zhenglun, Aldogom, Sufian, Huang, Yepeng, Noori, Ayush, Shamji, Reza, Parvataneni, Krishna, Tsiligkaridis, Theodoros, Zitnik, Marinka
AI scientists are emerging computational systems that serve as collaborative partners in discovery. These systems remain difficult to build because they are bespoke, tied to rigid workflows, and lack shared environments that unify tools, data, and analyses into a common ecosystem. In genomics, unified ecosystems have transformed research by enabling interoperability, reuse, and community-driven development; AI scientists require comparable infrastructure. We present ToolUniverse, an ecosystem for building AI scientists from any language or reasoning model across open- and closed-weight models. ToolUniverse standardizes how AI scientists identify and call tools by providing more than 600 machine learning models, datasets, APIs, and scientific packages for data analysis, knowledge retrieval, and experimental design. It automatically refines tool interfaces for correct use by AI scientists, generates new tools from natural language descriptions, iteratively optimizes tool specifications, and composes tools into agentic workflows. In a case study of hypercholesterolemia, ToolUniverse was used to create an AI scientist to identify a potent analog of a drug with favorable predicted properties. The open-source ToolUniverse is available at https://aiscientist.tools.
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Adaptive Policy Synchronization for Scalable Reinforcement Learning
Scaling reinforcement learning (RL) often requires running environments across many machines, but most frameworks tie simulation, training, and infrastructure into rigid systems. We introduce ClusterEnv, a lightweight interface for distributed environment execution that preserves the familiar Gymnasium API. ClusterEnv uses the DETACH pattern, which moves environment reset() and step() operations to remote workers while keeping learning centralized. To reduce policy staleness without heavy communication, we propose Adaptive Policy Synchronization (APS), where workers request updates only when divergence from the central learner grows too large. ClusterEnv supports both on- and off-policy methods, integrates into existing training code with minimal changes, and runs efficiently on clusters. Experiments on discrete control tasks show that APS maintains performance while cutting synchronization overhead. Source code is available at https://github.com/rodlaf/ClusterEnv.
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